Obesity prevention for socially disadvantaged children and adolescents (2009-2012): This project was part of the Prevention Research Programme operated by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As a part of the project ZIRN conducted a CIB analysis of the social, psychological and pysiological causes of obesity. The project was conducted in cooperation with the Institute for Sociology of the University of Hannover (coordination), the KATALYSE Institute for Applied Environmental Research and ZIRN. An expert panel worked out a qualitative model of the development of obesity in socially disadvantaged boys and girls. CIB was used to analyse the model and to discuss several measures against obesity risks. => More
Consistent framework assumptions informing model- and scenario-analysis at the German Federal Environment Agency (2010-2011): The project delt with the uncertainty and interdependence of framework assumptions used by environmental model simulations. Framework assumptions are frequently selected without systematic consideration of their mutual influences, a practice that rises risks for the validity of the model results. In this project commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency was demonstrated how CIB can be used to systematically derive consistent framework assumptions for environmental model exercises. => More
The project Consuming energy sustainably - consuming sustainable energy (2008-2011) was part of the research program "From knowledge to action" funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The goal was to devise recommendations for action towards sustainable heat consumption for the most significant actors, to uncover possibilities for promotion and analyse constraints to sustainable heat consumption. Members of the scientific partnership were the Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy at the University of Stuttgart (IER), the European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER), the Bremer Energy Institute (BEI), the Faculty of Law at the University of Frankfurt and the Interdisciplinary Research Unit on Risk Governance and Sustainable Technology Development at the University of Stuttgart (ZIRN, project coordinator). The project included a CIB analysis dealing with the interdependence of consumer behaviour, mesoscale actors and macroscale conditions. => More
The future of the photovoltaic industry in the year 2020 (2010): A cross-Business-Group team of Heraeus (a precious metals and technology group) developed future scenarios of the photovoltaic industry in the year 2020 and analysed their impacts on the value creation chain. As Heraeus products and solutions are part of various stages of the production of solar cells and modules, the analysis gives important impetus to the companyís strategic planning. The system analysis was conducted using CIB and the ScenarioWizard software. The scenarios were developed as part of higher-level energy scenarios. Contact: Dr. Stefan Pastuszka, Corporate Development, Heraeus Holding GmbH.
The significance of Germany as a site for power plant construction against the background of an increasing internationalization of innovation processes (2007-2009): The project was funded by the Volkswagen-Foundation. The project took examples of technologies from the power plant sector to illustrate the interactions between the innovation activities in progress in various countries, giving special consideration to their innovation systems. A major priority was the analysis of activities undertaken by multinational enterprises (MNE). CIB analysis was be used for the analysis of the interdependence of the innovation system environment and the MNE activities. The project was carried out in cooperation with the Research Centre Juelich (FZ Juelich), Programme Group Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Research Department Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management. >>More
A normative-functional concept of sustainability (2005-2006): This project was funded by the Ministry of Science of Baden-Wuerttemberg. It was aimed at developing a conceptual alternative to the usual 3D-model of sustainability. In addition to the conceptual work, an interdependence analysis was performed to study the interrelations in the multidisciplinary field of sustainability criteria. To this aim an expert poll on the cross-impacts of 19 sustainability criteria was carried out and the data were evaluated with the help of the CIB method. A ranking of the systemic power of the criteria was developed and the key factors of the interaction network were determined.
Innovation and modern energy technology ("MEX V", 2004-2005): In this FEES case study, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics, new approaches to the embedding of innovation processes in the energy-economic modelling were explored. The contribution of CIB was to analyse the impact of the political and economic environment on innovation processes. To this aim an expert panel was assembled consisting of four energy experts and four innovation researchers and a series of scenario workshops was carried out. The result was a qualitative model of the interdependence of policy measures, economic structures, and technological developments. The model was evaluated with the help of the CIB method. It was transformed to innovation scenarios, and the systemic efficiency of different policy measures was investigated.
Long-term contribution of the German energy economy to the European climate protection ("MEX IV", 2002-2003): This was another case study of FEES funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics. The embedding of the German energy economy in the European energy supply system was investigated. In this project, several methodological improvements of CIB were employed for the first time. This concerned the design of the expert discourse in order to maximize judgment quality, and the use of quantitative information in some parts of the analysed interaction network.
Environmental and climate protection in liberalized energy markets ("MEX III", 2002-2003): This project of the "Forum for Energy Models and Energy-Economic Systems Analysis" (FEES) was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics. Scenarios for the use of renewable energy in the German energy supply were developed by ten scientific institutes. The CIB method was used to explore the synergies of qualitative systems analysis and computational models. CIBís task was to create consistent frame assumptions to be used as a starting point for computational model experiments.
Scenarios of a liberalized electricity market (2001-2002) was a project of the Center of Technology Assessment. Ten energy experts from different research institutions shared their insights in the course of a scenario workshop series and developed future scenarios for the German electricity market using the CIB method. Four different scenarios were developed showing the range of possible political and economical developments. In some fields the scenario showed utterly different pathways (e.g. European harmonisation policy measures vs. national policy measures) while the scenarios exhibit robust features in other fields (e.g. considerably increasing electricity prices).
Version 4.31 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method...
The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method...
The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications...