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Bibliography


This bibliography lists publicly accessible documents dealing with methodological aspects of the CIB method (section A) or describing CIB applications in various research fields (section B). The bibliography is based on personal communications about CIB related publications, regularly conducted internet searches, and own research. Although we took considerable effort to identify as much publications as possible, this bibliography may be incomplete. Hints about additional literature are welcome (=> Email).


A. Methodological publications

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2017): Consistency of societal framework assumptions - CIB experiences [in German]. In: Biemann K., Distelkamp M., Dittrich M., Dünnebeil F., Greiner B., Hirschnitz-Garbers M., Koca D., Kosow H., Lorenz U., Mellwig P., Neumann K., Meyer M., Schoer K., Sverdrup H., von Oehsen A., Weimer-Jehle W.: Sicherung der Konsistenz und Harmonisierung von Annahmen bei der kombinierten Modellierung von Ressourceninanspruchnahme und Treibhausgasemissionen. Umweltbundesamt Dokumentationen 04/2017, Dessau, p. 22-28. >>

Kosow H. (2016): The best of both worlds? An exploratory study on forms and effects of new qualitative-quantitative scenario methodologies. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kosow H., Naegler T., Poganietz W., Pregger T., Prehofer S., von Recklinghausen A., Schippl J., Voegele S. (2016): Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 111, 956–970. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.073. >>

Schweizer V.J., Kurniawan J.H. (2016): Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors. Environmental Modelling & Software, 79 (Mai 2016), 322-333, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014. >>

Kosow, H. (2015): New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios. Eur J Futures Res 3:16, DOI 10.1007/s40309-015-0077-6. >>

Weimer-Jehle, W. (2015): Cross-Impact Analyse [Cross-Impact Analysis, in German]. In: Niederberger, M./Wassermann, S. (eds.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Methods of expert and stakeholder inclusion in social science research], Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag: 17-34.

Lloyd E.A., Schweizer V.J. (2014): Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese, Vol. 191(10), 2049-2088. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S. (2013): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien [Context scenarios - a concept for addressing context uncertainty and context complexity in energy scenarios, in German]. TATuP 22(2), 27–36 >>

Kemp-Benedict E. (2012): Telling better stories - Strengthening the story in story and simulation. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 041004 >>

Kosow, H. (2011): Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Seville (Spain), 12.-13.05. 2011 >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2011): Gesellschaftliche Kontextszenarien als Ausgangspunkt für modellgestützte Energieszenarien [Social Context Scenarios as a Starting Point for Model-Based Energy Scenarios, in German]. In: Dieckhoff C. et al. (Eds.): Energieszenarien - Konstruktion, Bewertung und Wirkung. KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Properties of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. arXiv:0912.5352v1 [physics.soc-ph]. >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse [Generating Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, in German]. In: Gausemeier J. (Ed.): Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe Vol. 265, Paderborn, 435-454.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Cross-Impact Balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis. Physica A, 387:14, 3689-3700. >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73:4, 334-361. >>


B. Reported CIB applications

in the fields of biotechnology, climate change, education, energy, health, information technologies, innovation, management, mobility, politics, risk/security, societal change, sustainability, technology management, urban planning, waste, water and working world.

Biotechnology

Schneider M., Gill B. (2015): Biotechnology versus agroecology - Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop. Science and Public Policy, DOI:10.1093/scipol/scv021 >>

Climate change

Drakes C., Laing T., Kemp-Benedict E., Cashman A. (2017): Caribbean Scenarios 2050 - CoLoCarSce Report. CERMES Technical Report No. 82. >>

Haraguchi M., Liu R., Randhawa J., Salz S., Schäfer S., Sharma M., Shifflett S.C., Suzuki A., Yuan Y. (2015): Human Intervention in the Earth's Climate - The Governance of Geoengineering in 2025+. Global Governance Futures. >>

Ruth M., Özgüna O., Wachsmuth J., Gößling-Reisemann S. (2015): Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany. Ecological Economics 111, 29–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.12.025 >>

Wachsmuth, J. (2015): Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development. Climatic Change 132, 387–400. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1231-z >>

Schweizer V.J., O’Neill B.C. (2014) Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change 122, 431–445 >>

Wachsmuth, J. (2013): Developing three scenarios about possible framework conditions for Bremen-Oldenburg metropolitan region in Northwest Germany in the year 2050 [in German]. Report no. 22 of the project Nordwest2050 (www.nordwest2050.de). >>

Schweizer V.J., Kriegler E. (2012): Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 >>

Schweizer, V.J. (2010): Developing Useful Long-Term Energy Projections in the Face of Climate Change. Dissertation. Center for Climate and Energy Decision-Making. Carnegie Mellon University Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA.

Education

Mphahlele M.I. (2012): Interactive Scenario Analysis Technique for Forecasting E-Skills Development. Dissertation. Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria (South Africa). >>

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2012): Aplicación de la Planeación por Escenarios en Unidades Académicas: Caso Programa de Administración Industrial [Application of scenario planning in academic units: Industrial Management Program Case, in Spanish]. Escenarios 10(1), 40-48. >>

Energy

Pruditsch N., Zöphel C. (2017): Scenarios for an European energy system - Challenges in the interdisciplinary development of consistent scenarios for international systems [in German]. UmweltWirtschaftsForum (uwf). DOI: 10.1007/s00550-017-0443-x. >>

Schmid E., Pechan A., Mehnert M., Eisenack, K. (2017): Imagine all these futures: On heterogeneous preferences and mental models in the German energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science 27, 45-56, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.02.012. >>

Regett A., Zeiselmair A., Wachinger K., Heller C. (2017): Merit order power grid expansion 2030. Part 1: Scenario analysis - possible future framework conditions for power grid expansion [in German]. Report, Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE). >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kopfmüller J., Naegler T., Poganietz W.-R., Pregger T., Rösch C., Scholz Y. (2017): Context scenarios - A concept for coping with context uncertainty and complexity and its applications in the Helmholtz Research Alliance ENERGY-TRANS [in German]. In: Jens Schippl, Armin Grunwald, Ortwin Renn (Eds.). Die Energiewende verstehen – orientieren – gestalten. Erkenntnisse aus der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, p. 257-94.

Senkpiel C., Shammugam S., Biener W., Saad Hussein N., Kost C., Kreifels N., Hauser W. (2016): Concept of evaluating chances and risks of grid autarky. 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2016, Porto (Portugal). DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521177. >>

Vögele S., Hansen P., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach. Energy. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.001. >>

Mansson A. (2016): Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies. Energy Strategy Reviews 13-14, 236-47. >>

Vögele S., Hansen P., Kuckshinrichs W., Schürmann K., Schenk O., Pesch T., Heinrichs H., Markewitz P. (2013): Konsistente Zukunftsbilder im Rahmen von Energieszenarien [Consistent images of the future within energy scenarios, in German]. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 3/2013. >>

Cheng H., Ferguson I., Guan T., Johnson T., Ma Y., Mao Z., Pence E., Wigand F. (2013): Energy governance outlook: Global scenarios and implications. Global Governance Futures. >>

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen Teile - Konsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und Wissenschaft [More than the Sum of Its Parts. Consistent Scenarios for the Consumption of Heat Energy as a Common Reference Point for Policy and Science, in German], GAIA 21/4, 290–299

Vögele S. (2012): Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen für neue Energietechnologien [Development of framework assumptions for new energy technologies, in German}. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 4/2012.

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Möglichkeitsräume des zukünftigen Konsums von Wärme [Future heat consumption - a contingency analysis, in German]. In: Gallego Carrera D., Renn O., Wassermann S., Weimer-Jehle W. (Eds.): Nachhaltige Nutzung von Wärmeenergie (Sustainable Heat Consumption). Springer-Vieweg, Heidelberg, Wiesbaden.

Aretz, A., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross Impact Methode [Cross-impact method, in German], in: Der Beitrag der deutschen Stromwirtschaft zum europäischen Klimaschutz. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster, G., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross-Impact Methode [Cross-Impact Method, in German]. In: Energiemodelle zum Klimaschutz in liberalisierten Energiemärkten - Die Rolle erneuerbarer Energieträger. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster G., Weimer-Jehle W. (2003): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios of a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis, 12:(1). >>

Förster, G. (2002): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios for a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Center for Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany. >>

Health

Deuschle J., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Übergewicht bei Kindern und Jugendlichen - Analyse eines Gesundheitsrisikos [Obesity in children and adolescents - Analyzing a health risk, in German]. In: Benighaus L., Renn O., Benighaus C. (eds.): Gesundheitsrisiken im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs [Health risks and social discourse, in German]. Bremen: EHV Academicpress: 66-98.

Hummel E., Hoffmann I. (2016): Complexity of Nutritional Behavior: Capturing and Depicting Its Interrelated Factors in a Cause-Effect Model. Ecology of Food and Nutrition, 55(3), 241-257. DOI: 10.1080/03670244.2015.1129325. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Deuschle J., Rehaag R. (2012): Familial and societal causes of juvenile obesity - a qualitative model on obesity development and prevention in socially disadvantaged children and adolescents. Journal of Public Health, 20(2), 111-124. >>

Information technologies

Khan A., Pohle J., Lin R., Sandhu P., Oppenheim S., Shin T. (2015): Shared Responsibility - Towards more inclusive internet governance. Global Governance Futures. >>

Ehrhardt J. (2014): Realistische Entwicklungsszenarien einer digitalen und offenen Handelplattform für Cloud Services [Realistic scenarios of a digital and open trading platform for cloud services, in German]. Master thesis, Reutlingen University. >>

Abbassi P., Kaul M., Mohan V., Shen Y., Winkelman Z. (2013): Securing the net - Global governance in the digital domain. Global Governance Futures. >>

Innovation

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Fuchs G. (2010): Erstellung von Energie- und Innovations-Szenarien mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse: Internationalisierung von Innovationsstrategien im Bereich der Kohlekraftwerkstechnologie [Generating Energy- and Innovation-Scenarios using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis - Internationalization of Innovation Strategies for Coal Power Plant Technology, in German]. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, TU Graz, 10.-12.02.2010. >>

Fuchs G., Fahl U., Pyka A., Staber U. Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology. Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Fuchs G. (2007): Generierung von Innovationsszenarien mit der Cross-Impact Methode [Generating innovation scenarios using the cross-impact method, in German], in: Innovation und moderne Energietechnik. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Management

Aschenbrücker G., Geiger R. (2015): Die Cross-Impact Bilanzanalyse als Instrument der Früherkennung [Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis as an early warning tool, in German]. Controller Magazin, May/June 2015 Issue 3, 47-52. >>

Vergara Schmallbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Duarte Acosta M. (2013): Aplication del Método Search para el Diseño de Escenarios Futuros en el Consultorio Empresarial de la Universidad de Cartagena (2012-2022) [Application of the method "Search" for Design of Future Scenarios in the Office Business Department at the University of Cartagena (2012-2022), in Spanish]. Prospectiva, Vol. 11(1), 40-49. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15665/rp.v11i1.26 >>

Mobility

Knupfer M., Sprake D., Vagapov Y., Anuchin A. (2016): Cross-impact analysis of Vehicle-to-Grid technologies in the context of 2030. IX International Conference on Power Drives Systems (ICPDS), Perm (Russia). DOI: 10.1109/ICPDS.2016.7756682. >>

Seum S., Henning A., Plohr M., Özdemir E. D., Hepting M., Keimel H., Sanok S., Sausen R., Pregger T., Heinrichs M., Müller S., Winkler C., Neumann T., Seebach O., Matthias V., Vogel B. (2016): The DLR Transport and the Environment Project – Building competency for a sustainable mobility future. DLR-Report 2015-38, 2016, p. 192-198. >>

Politics

Ayandeban (2016): Future Scenarios Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1395 (March 2016 - March 2017) [in Farsi, summary in English]. Ayandeban Iran Futures Studies. >>
Conference paper in English: Mahdi Mowlaei M., Talebian H., Talebian S., Gharari F., Mowlaei Z., Hassanpour H. (2016): Scenario Building for Iran Short-Time Future - Results of Iran Futures Studies Project. Finding Futures in Uncertainties. 6th International Postgraduate Conference, Departement of Applied Social Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, September 22-24, 2016. >>

Balthasar D., Bowen H., Brandi C., Hamm K., Haring-Smith W., Turner G., Wang Y., Xu J. (2013): Envisioning New Partnerships For Africa’s Future: Making Global Governance Work in a Post-2015 World. Global Governance Futures. >>

Risk and security

Asano T., El-Sayed A., Kaul K., Körner K., Liu W., Malik S., Nozoe M. (2015): The Future of Weaponized Unmanned Systems - Challenges and Opportunities. Global Governance Futures. >>

Kaukonen E. (2014): Pelastustoimen skenaariopäivitys [Rescue service scenarios, in Finnish]. Pelastusopisto - Tutkimusraportit 3/2014 [Reports of the Emergency Services College], Kuopio, Finnland. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M., Troppens, S. (2013), Scenario-based supply chain risk management to avoid drug shortages caused by external threats in the pharmaceutical supply chain, 20thEurOMA Conference, Dublin June 7-12, 2013. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M. (2013), Szenario-gestützte Identifikation von externer Bedrohungspotenzialen in der Medikamentenversorgungskette [Scenario-based identification of external threats to the pharmaceutical supply chain]. IPRI-Praxis No. 2, Stuttgart. => IPRI-Homepage

Societal change

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Kosow H. (2011): Konsistente Rahmendaten für Modellierungen und Szenariobildung im Umweltbundesamt [Consistent framework assumptions informing model- and scenario-analysis at the German Federal Environment Agency, in German]. Expert's Report for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), UBA-Texte 20/2011, Dessau-Roßlau. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G., Valdez Alejandre F.J. (2010): Análisis al plan national de desarrollo - una visión prospectiva [Analysis of the national development plan: a prospective vision, in Spanish]. XV Congreso international de contaduría, administratión e informática, México. >>

Sustainability

Saner D., Beretta C., Jäggi B., Juraske R., Stoessel F., Hellweg S. (2016): FoodPrints of households. Int J Life Cycle Assess 21, 654–663, DOI 10.1007/s11367-015-0924-5. The scenario construction is described in the Supplementary Material (p. 45). >>

Kemp-Benedict E., de Jong W., Pacheco P. (2014): Forest futures: Linking global paths to local conditions. In Katila P., Galloway G., de Jong W., Pacheco P., Mery G. (eds.): Forest under pressure - Local responses to global issues. Part IV - Possible future pathways. IUFRO World Series Vol. 32. >>

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9:4, 291-317.

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2007): Leitbild Nachhaltigkeit - Eine normativ-funktionale Konzeption und ihre Umsetzung [Model Sustainability - A normative-functional concept and its implementation, in German]. VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, Germany. >>

Technology management

Lee H., Geum Y. (2017): Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP. Technology Forecasting & Social Change 117, 12-24. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.016. >>

Urban planning

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2014): La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: El caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Columbia) [Planning through scenarios implemented for urban policy: Central market case in Cartagena (Columbia), in Spanish]. Rev. fac. cienc. econ. Vol XXII(1), Enero-Junio 2014, 23-33. >>

Waste

Zhang Y. (2014): Strategic scenario study on international cooperation of e-waste management and metal recycling. Master thesis, ETH Zürich, University Graz. >>

Meylan G., Seidl R., Spoerri A. (2013): Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 74, 8-19. >>

Meylan G. (2013): Integrating Stakeholder Perspectives into Policy Support of Municipal Solid Waste Management. Dissertation, ETH Zürich. >>

Saner D., Blumer Y.B., Lang D.J., Koehler A. (2011): Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 57, 67–77. >>

Water

Slawson D. (2015): A qualitative cross-impact balance analysis of the hydrological impacts of land use change on channel morphology and the provision of stream channel services. Proceedings of the International Conference on River and Stream Restoration - Novel Approaches to Assess and Rehabilitate Modified Rivers. June 30 - July 2, 2015, Wageningen, The Netherlands, p. 350-354. >>

Assimacopoulos D., Kampragou E., Andreu J., Bifulco C., de Carli A., De Stefano L., Dias S. Gudmundsson L., Haro-Monteagudo D., Musolino D., Paredes-Arquiola J., Rego F., Seidl I., Solera A., Urquijo J., van Lanen H., Wolters W. (2014): Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale. EU project DROUGHT - R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical report no. 20, p. 17-22. >>

Miranda Sara L., Baud I. (2014): Knowledge-building in adaption management: concertacion processes in transforming Lima water and climate change governance. Environment & Urbanization, Vol. 26(2):505-524. DOI 10.1177/0956247814539231 >>

Uraiwong P. (2013): Failure analysis of malfunction water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand - Integrated mental models and project life cycle approach. Kochi University of Technology, Japan. >>

Kosow H., León C., Schütze M. (2013): Escenarios para el futuro - Lima y Callao 2040. Escenarios CIB, storylines & simulacin LiWatool [Scenarios for the future of Lima and Callao 2040. CIB scenarios, storylines and LiWatool simulations, in Spanish]. Scenario brochure of the Liwa project (www.lima-water.de). >>

Baltodano Fuentes A. (2012): Insumos para la definición de estrategias de gestión del recurso hídrico en zonas vulnerables a cambio climático: Percepciones y escenarios de iso del agua en Guanacaste, Costa Rica [Inputs for strategy design on water resource management in vulnerable areas to climate change: Perceptions and scenarios on water use in Guanacaste, Costa Rica]. Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación Y Enseñanza (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica. >>

John S. (2009): Bewertungen der Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Abwasserbetriebe Bautzen mit Hilfe der Szenarioanalyse [Using Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Demographic Change on the Wastewater Management Authorities in Bautzen, in German]. Dresdner Beiträge zur Lehre der betrieblichen Umweltökonomie 34/09, Universität Dresden. >>

Working world

Centre for Workforce Intelligence (2014): Scenario generation - Enhancing scenario generation and quantification. CfWI technical paper series no. 7. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G. (2012): Análisis prospectivo de las expectativas de Calidad de Vida en el Trabajo [Prospective analysis of expectations about the quality of life at work, in Spanish]. 3er Congreso Internacional de Contaduria, Administración e Informática Administrativa. Filosofía de la Organización. Morelia, Michoacán Mexico, 29 y 30 de Noviembre 2012. >>
News
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Version 4.2 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
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SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
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The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method... More
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The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method... More
Archive
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The archive provides a compilation of older notes on CIB projects and publications... More