Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology
Gerhard Fuchs, Ulrich Fahl, Andreas Pyka, Udo Staber, Stefan Voegele, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle
The question why and how innovation occurs is a subject of hot debate in policy, science, and economy. We describe a judgmental approach to innovation systems research that accounts for the complexity and interdisciplinary character of innovation processes and policy impacts. An interdisciplinary expert panel developed a qualitative model of an innovation system for a set of five energy technologies. The modelís systemic implications are analyzed using cross-impact techniques. The findings offer reasons why technology characteristics influence innovation and diffusion prospects, why different technologies require different innovation policy measures, and why innovativeness is more robust for some technologies than for others.
Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008
Version 4.2 of the free CIB software ScenarioWizard is available now... More
SafeMed, a project analysing potential risks for the pharma supply chain, uses CIB to develop hazard scenarios... More
The Helmholtz Alliance "ENERGY-TRANS" studies the interplay between technological and societal aspects of the energy transition in Germany. ZIRIUS develops societal scenarios using the CIB method...
The German-Peruvian project LiWa aims at strategies to cope with the threats of climate change to the water supply of Lima. The project's integrative scenarios are developed using the CIB method...
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